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Dr. Pauline H. Baker An Analytical Model for Conflict Assessment System Tool An Analytical Model for Early Warning and Risk Assessment of Weak and Failing States Pauline H. Baker The Fund for Peace Copyright 2006. All rights reserved, including the right of reproduction in Please contact The Fund for Peace by e-mail at [email protected] request permission for reproduction. e Fund for Peace e Fund for Peace e Fund for Peace e Fund for Peace 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TY THE FUND FOR PEACE 1701 K Stre t, NW Eleventh Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 (20 ) 223-7940 (phone) (202) 223-7947 (fax) www.fundforpeace.org The Conflict Assessment System Tool for Early Warning and Risk Assessment of Weak and Failing States Foreword Introduction A. The Problem B. Existing Approaches A. Definitions and Concepts D. Twelve Indicators of States at Risk E. Rating the Indicators G. The Core Five State Institutions Chapter III: Operational Guidelines A. Caveats and Clues B. Data Collection and Analysis •Rwanda Example: Rated Values for Indicators over 15 Dates •Trend Lines by Indiv dual Indicators –Rwanda •Aggregate Trend Line –Rwanda •The Conceptual Map •Rwanda Conceptual Map (CAST) for Early Warning and Risk Assessment of Weak and Failing States Pauline H. Baker The Fund for Peace 1701 K Stre t, NW Eleventh Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 (202) 223-7940 (phone) (202) 223-7947 (fax) www.fundforpeace.org Copyright ©2006. All rights reserved, including whole or in part in any form. Please contact The Fund for Peace by e-mail at [email protected] to request permission for e Fund for Peace THE FUND FOR PEACE 1701 K Stre t, NW Eleventh Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 (20 ) 223-7940 (phone) (202) 223-7947 (fax) www.fundforpeace.org

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