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Dr. Pauline H. Baker
An Analytical Model for
Conflict Assessment System Tool
An Analytical Model
for Early Warning and Risk Assessment
of Weak and Failing States
Pauline H. Baker
The Fund for Peace
Copyright 2006.
All rights reserved, including the right of reproduction in
Please contact The Fund for Peace by e-mail at
[email protected] request permission for
reproduction.
e Fund for Peace
e Fund for Peace
e Fund for Peace
e Fund for Peace
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THE FUND FOR PEACE
1701 K Stre
t, NW
Eleventh Floor
Washington, D.C. 20006
(20
) 223-7940 (phone)
(202) 223-7947 (fax)
www.fundforpeace.org
The Conflict Assessment System Tool
for Early Warning and Risk Assessment
of Weak and Failing States
Foreword
Introduction
A. The Problem
B. Existing Approaches
A. Definitions and Concepts
D. Twelve Indicators of States at Risk
E. Rating the Indicators
G. The Core Five State Institutions
Chapter III: Operational Guidelines
A. Caveats and Clues
B. Data Collection and Analysis
•Rwanda Example: Rated Values for Indicators over 15 Dates
•Trend Lines by Indiv
dual Indicators –Rwanda
•Aggregate Trend Line –Rwanda
•The Conceptual Map
•Rwanda Conceptual Map
(CAST)
for Early Warning and Risk Assessment
of Weak and Failing States
Pauline H. Baker
The Fund for Peace
1701 K Stre
t, NW
Eleventh Floor
Washington, D.C. 20006
(202) 223-7940 (phone)
(202) 223-7947 (fax)
www.fundforpeace.org
Copyright ©2006.
All rights reserved, including
whole or in part in any form.
Please contact The Fund
for Peace by e-mail at
[email protected] to
request permission for
e Fund for Peace
THE FUND FOR PEACE
1701 K Stre
t, NW
Eleventh Floor
Washington, D.C. 20006
(20
) 223-7940 (phone)
(202) 223-7947 (fax)
www.fundforpeace.org

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